Report #95: $1.2 Trillion into EVs — EU 2035 ICE ban — 📊 Model Y best-seller in EU and China
Hey, Jaan here.
Believe it or not, we're celebrating the 2nd birthday of the EV Universe. Happy birthday! 🎉
Two years ago, I sent the first 500-word newsletter out to less than 100 people on the waitlist.
Fast forward to today, we've got over 2,200 awesome subscribers like you and a whole lot of extra EV stuff going on.
I can't imagine where this can be in the next two years. I mean I can — the roadmap is set and the plans are bigger than you'd guess — but it's also mind-boggling to think about.
Anyway, I would love to hear your thoughts about the EV Universe so far. Would you write a few words in this 1-question form for me?
Here's the form: (link)
This week, you can read about:
- The $1.2T electrification bet... and growing.
- EU finalizes the 2035 ICE ban, but leaves e-fuels wiggle room.
- Toyota might reconsider its EV strategy as it sees its falling behind?
- The two electric DeLorean companies.
- Rivian learns to kneel.
Words: 2,991 | Time to read: 13 minutes | Feels: like a trillion dollars.
- Jaan
⚡⚡⚡
The $1.2T big picture
.gif)
An analysis of 37 global automakers found that they plan to invest nearly $1.2 trillion in EVs and batteries through 2030.
In an analysis similar to what has been on my to-do list for a while now, Reuters put together all of the public data and projections released by the companies, including their partnerships, 2030 battery capacity, planned EV projection in 2030, battery investment and EV investments.
I highly encourage you to explore this resource: (link). Just keep in mind that a lot of the information is just projections, which are and will be changed between now and 2030.
I also did a thing... for better sorting, I added all of the information from the analysis into a spreadsheet here: (link). See the different 'tabs' for an easier overview.
For the newsletter here, let's see the top four of each area analyzed. Again, note, that not all of the projections are present for each automaker. I'll do a top four, because Tesla will be on #1 anyway.
2030 BATTERY CAPACITY
- Tesla, 3,000 GWh
- BYD, 489 GWh
- Stellantis 400 GWh
- Hyundai/Kia, 289 GWh
I'd take the Tesla battery capacity bet with a grain of salt, as most of it is very far from being announced - it's more of an aspirational goal. But then again, if there's anyone that's going to make it happen, it'll be these guys.
2030 PLANNED EV PRODUCTION
- Tesla, 20 million
- VW Group, 5 million
- Toyota, 3.5 million
- Stellantis, 3 million
BATTERY INVESTMENT
- Tesla, $400B (same thing about being non-confirmed)
- VW Group, $57B
- Mercedes-Benz, $30B
- Stellantis, $24B
EV INVESTMENT
- Tesla, $100B
- Toyota, $56.4B
- VW Group, $55B
- Ford, $43B
If you want to hear the background further, Michael Dunne just hosted the author of this report, Paul Lienert, on this topic on the Driving with Dunne podcast (36min).
⚡⚡⚡
We've got an event coming up!
Next Wednesday, I'll be interviewing live the Chief Visionary and CEO of Beast Rent, the premium Tesla rental business making waves in Europe. This means, also going forward, that the Pro members can attend the interview live and participate in the AMA session after.
I will also upload the interview part of the recording to Youtube or make it a podcast (or both) which everyone can access.
RSVP for the live event on our platform here.
This is a start of a series, I aim for making at least one interview a month with different EV startups.
⚡⚡⚡
🇪🇺✔️ Done
Today, the European Union reached a deal to effectively ban new combustion-engine cars from 2035.
Here's the official press release from European Parliament: (link).
Pending a formal adoption, the co-legislators agreed to a:
- 55% CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and 50% for new vans by 2030 compared to 2021 levels
- 100% CO2 emission reduction target for both new cars and vans by 2035.
The price tag associated with every ICE car an OEM puts on the market after they exceed their yearly emission targets is €95 per gram CO2/km.
Looks like the e-fuel lobby pushed through their agenda, too:
"The agreement includes wording on CO2 neutral fuels whereby following consultation with stakeholders, the Commission will make a proposal for registering vehicles running exclusively on CO2-neutral fuels after 2035 in conformity with EU law, outside the scope of the fleet standards, and in conformity with the EU’s climate neutrality objective."
⚡⚡⚡
🌌 Around The 'Verse
The most clicked link last week: The 20 recipients of US $2.8B battery grants (pdf).
Follow-up: You know how two weeks ago, I wrote to you this story about Tesla Model Y beating everyone else as a top-selling vehicle in Germany in September?
There's more.
Turns out it also came in as the best-selling passenger car in the whole of Europe in September (link), again of any fuel type. Coming in with 29,367 units, a third of it was sales in Germany. The gas-guzzlers Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero ranked 2nd and third.
There are no other EVs in the top 10, but keep in mind that it will likely take a bit of time until we'll see consecutive months of domination from Tesla, as currently, within any given quarter, Tesla deliveries still come in waves.
The overall BEV mix of Europe in September was 16%, with YTD at ~12%. (link)
Speaking of Tesla - the referral program looks to be making a comeback... and already has in China. (link) Tesla also started a 'Drive it like you own it' program in Europe, where you can experience a Tesla over night (link).
China continues to baffle me. September comes in with a 26% BEV share. Every fourth car rolling out to an owner is fully electric. (link) data via José Pontes of EV Volumes. The Tesla Model Y also won the best-selling vehicle title in September.
So, to recap: The Model Y in September reached the best-seller in both US & China's overall car market, and on the 8th overall spot in the US. (link) If I seem too excited about this, it's because... I am. We need breakthroughs like these into the ICE land as often as possible.
Has Toyota's revelation finally come? Toyota is reportedly considering changing its EV strategy after seeing the momentum of Tesla and other automakers entering the booming EV market. (link)
From the report, it seems Tesla's manufacturing efficiency seems to be the key in the decision. A decision is to be made early next year, and work is reportedly stopping on some of the 30 EV programs it announced in Dec 2021 in the meantime.
At the same time, Reuters reports about some of Toyota's plans that seem already rather slow - like ramping up the bZ4X production "6 or 12 times" from its current 1,000-cars-a-month output... from 2025. (link)
Volkswagen Passenger Cars brings forward its previous timeframe of ending ICE sales in Europe 'between 2033 and 2035', now it will build BEVs only from "2033 at the latest". (link) VW is planning ten new electric models by 2026, with one of them being a compact SUV based on ID.3.
VW also confirmed its performance sub-brand, the Volkswagen R, will go EV-only by 2030. Several electric R models are in the planning stages. (link)
Hyundai will open pre-orders for the first 2,500 units of First Edition Ioniq 6 in several European markets on Nov 9th. Deliveries for these should start in March 2023. Want to make a bet on how fast these will sell out? I'd give it a minute or so.
NIO will start allowing owners to upgrade or downgrade their vehicle battery packs on a daily basis during battery swaps in China. (link)
This means you can go 'up' your battery from 70kWh to 100kWh in the station when taking a trip and then drop it back lower after it to avoid extra costs (and well, efficiency too). This used to be available only per month or annual basis.
Meanwhile, the 100-kWh battery pack owners can receive 200 NIO Credits per day for driving around with the smaller pack. If I calculated right, that's worth ~$1k per year.
Shift4Good, an impact fund that only invests in sustainable mobility opportunities or circular economy businesses when they intersect with mobility, completed its first close of >€100M, aiming for a final close at €300M. (link)
It will invest in approximately 30 startups, which we'll likely cover in our future reports too. Congratulations to the team, a part of which also happen to be right here with us as readers and members of the EV Universe!
⚡⚡⚡
More funding in the US
US Department of Energy drops another $39M in funding to 16 projects across 12 states through the MINER program to develop 'market-ready technologies that will increase domestic supplies of critical elements required for the clean energy transition' (link). Recipients: (link).
The EPA on Wednesday announced $965 million in grants for 2,463 school buses, 95% of which will be electric. This is the first round of a five-year, $5B program for zero-emission school buses with funds from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. (link) Thanks, Ranno, for sending me this one.
Michigan state partly funds the procurement of 17 new electric school buses through the $64.8M of funds the state received from the VW Dieselgate settlement.
California Air Resources Board (CARB) also announced the second installment of the VW Mitigation Trust Zero Emission program is available for applications for replacing ICE buses with e-buses. (link) The two rounds have $65 in funds each.
⚡⚡⚡
SETBACKS
General Motors postpones its goals of delivering 400k EVs in North America by the end of 2023 by six months, because, as the CEO Mary Barra explained (link):
"Due to a slightly slower launch of cell and pack production than we expected, our plan is now to produce 400,000 EVs in North America over the course of 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024."
Tesla physically recalls 24,064 Model 3's in the US and an unknown amount in Canada to potentially fasten seatbelt components for the second-row seats. (link)
I can't believe it. A demand problem? Toyota remains doubtful that they will be able to hit their goal of leasing 5,000 BZ4Xs in Japan, offers discounts. (link)
Arrival is again cutting jobs in the UK, in its latest plan of pivoting away from the UK to focus on the US market. (link)
Per our boots on the British ground, Tom from The Fast Charge, it will lead to mass job cuts across Arrival’s UK team, with many already posting updates on LinkedIn. The company will continue to produce a small number of vans at its Bicester Microfactory to support trials with customers.
⚡⚡⚡
Chart of the week
All 140k of the public DC chargers in the US, based on NREL's data from July and visualized by Visual Capitalist.
This is actually an interactive one, but your email inbox couldn't handle it so I'll spare you. You can access the interactive chart on the web here (link). It's filterable by price / charging level / connector types.
Per this data, but to no surprise, California holds 28.7% of US' charging locations with 15,182 of 52,889 total.
⚡⚡⚡
The DeLorean goes comes back to the future... twice?
John Zachary Delorean
Since you'll be likely seeing both of these companies around in the EV news, I thought I'd bring a bit of clarity. Note: I'm not offering my opinion here on which one is 'right' or 'wrong'.
One: DeLorean Motor Company
You've seen the recently unveiled DeLorean Alpha 5 prototype, which one can already reserve by buying a $88 membership* and $2,500 for a randomized production slot:
This car is not made by anyone bearing the DeLorean name... although the company does wear the very brand of the DeLorean Motor Company (link).
The history here goes something like this (link):
- The original DeLorean Motor Company was established in 1975.
- Went bankrupt in 1982.
- In 1995, Stephen Wynne founded the new DeLorean Motors Reimagined, doing business as DMC, and acquired the remaining parts inventory along with registering the (stylized) DMC trademark. It served as support for DeLoreans on the road.
- In 2022, the company turned a new leaf by becoming an EV maker and unveiled the Alpha 5, apparently in a joint venture with Reimagined Automotive...
As I reported in last week's Pro Report, DeLorean is actually under fire as Karma Automotive sues several of its former employees who reportedly went rogue and founded Reimagined Automotive while they were told to look for outside investors for Karma Project 88*.
The Reimagined Automotive LLC, however, seems to be hand in hand now with DeLorean Motor Company. Joost de Vries, who has been the CEO of DeLorean for the last 7 months, was previously VP of Sales at Karma Automotive, and was VP of Worldwide Service at Tesla 2012-13.
This lawsuit concerns the current CEO Joost de Vries, COO Alan Yuan, CMO Troy Beetz and VP Neilo Harris of DeLorean, all of whom were recently working for Karma. The Alpha5, if I get this down correct, also runs on Karma's vehicle platform. DeLorean says Karma gave the OK to develop the new company. Karma doesn't think so. Oh boy is this a messy one.
* I also have to assume the $88 membership isn't coincidental here, and also the fact that 88 of the Alpha5 will ever be built.
The other: DeLorean Next Generation Motors (DNG Motors)
The daughter of John Z DeLorean (1925-2005), Kat, does not approve of what the DeLorean Motor Company is doing in his father's name with the Alpha 5. She has gone as far as saying:
DeLorean Motor Company is not John DeLorean’s Company. DMC is not 40 years old, and not associated with the DeLorean Family, or my father’s ongoing legacy. Please stop lying and stop speaking about John now, he despised you.
Now it looks like she took it a step further and founded DNG Motors (link), which has launched the renders of a similarly futuristic take of the original DeLorean, named Model-JZD, after Kat's father. (link) (video) Check out that Flux Capacitor.
The renders are done by the Spanish designer Angel Guerra and I'm rather sure he was doing the 'job' even before Kat had reached out to him. In fact, I've shown you his first release of the render back in January 2021, *checks archives, dusts off the #12 newsletter*, here.
Kat has said the car will be built to promote a 'next generation engineering program', not as a brand. She says:
"I didn’t set out to make a car, I built a training program and people gave me a car, a place of manufacture and engineers because I am a DeLorean. All to support our engineering program."
On Tuesday, DNG Motors revealed that the car 'will be built in Detroit, Michigan, starting in January of 2023, with an expected unveiling by the end of the year' (link). A portion of the original team that built the DeLorean more than 40 years ago will be involved.
PS - you can also join the logo contest for the company and car badge (link).
I wouldn't mind two different electric DeLoreans, would you? However, with one being under fire by Karma and the other very far from real production... will we see one soon, or do we have to wait another 40 years?
⚡⚡⚡
Stuff I'm...
...watching
👀 A Technoking makes a meme real after buying a company for $44B (video). "The bird is freed", he claims.
👀 Rivian launches 'kneel mode', which lowers your Rivian when parked to make getting in and out of the car even easier. It drops as low as 10'' from the ground. (link)
Two watts: I have been waiting all my life for cars to kneel before me. And also, can we reverse this function for the long-legged out there?
👀 The 4x4electric is two Dutch "nature geeks" that will take a Škoda ENYAQ iV80 on November 4th and drive it ~40,000 km (24.8k mi) from the Netherlands to South Africa and back. (link) (videos) They'll also be using a system to DC charge the car straight from laid out solar panels. (video)
👀 Electrichana: Ken Block plays around in Las Vegas with the electric in the Audi S1 "HOONITRON" (aka 9 minutes of electric ASMR):
👀 The crazy good turning radius of the VW ID.Buzz, compared to EQS and M3 by Bjørn Nyland. 11 meters (over 35 feet):
👀 How did this 'rent free' quote go again? Renault Trucks mocks Tesla Semi in an ad:
...reading.
📚 A detailed overview of the early findings from the Uber-Hertz Tesla partnership (link), written by Rainer Lempert, a data scientist at Uber.
📚 A study of >300k charging sessions for more than 200 individual EVs and 10 different models by Pecan Street gives us some insights into home-charging habits in the US. (link)
Like the fact that 70% of charging cycles were <10kWh, which might indicate the owners on average don't use more energy to drive through the day. Here's an hour-long seminar on the findings (video).
📚 Jan Biederbeck built a total cost of ownership (TCO) calculator tool based on a T&E study to compare BEV/FCEV/ICEV through different factors like energy, infra and vehicle costs, policy framework and more. (link)
⚡⚡⚡
Quote of the week
.png)
RJ Scaringe, the CEO and founder of Rivian, on the TechCrunch Disrupt conference (link):
"Of Rivian’s nearly 15,000 employees, about half are focused on future products. So that’s updated compute, updated drive units and really important updated battery packs."
And even more notably:
"When you look at the semiconductor shortage we’ve just gone through… I would call that an appetizer to the degree of the supply chain constraint we’re likely to see across the battery supply chain over the next 15 years."
⚡⚡⚡
You made it! 🎉
This newsletter went out to 2,206 subscribers. Want to have an impact on the EV Universe?
Consider joining the Pro or spreading the word that the EV Universe exists!
See you next week.
Jaan
