Teslaverse #1: Tesla now and how it got here — price wars — Model Y best-selling car in Europe
Hey, Jaan here.
Welcome to the very first edition of the Teslaverse.
Wait, a what now?
Yes, this here is a monthly newsletter in addition to our weekly EV industry overviews and the Pro Reports. I try to keep the overlap to a minimum across these.
I'm excited about this new project!
The Teslaverse comes to you in collaboration with Beast. Beast is a fully contactless Tesla rental, actively battling the bias of vehicle ownership.
We will start our Teslaverse series with a broader overview of where Tesla stands today, with a sprinkle of latest news.
Dig in!
Words: 2,630 | Reading time: ~13 minutes | Feeling: like I can't keep up with Tesla
— Jaan
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WHERE IS TESLA NOW?
Yes, I plan to knock you out with numbers today. I'll add some eye candy to soften the hit here.
Out of 81 million light-duty vehicles sold in 2022,
7,657,277 were battery-electric (BEVs). That's 9.45%. Or simply put, every 10th car sold was fully electric.
Out of the 7.66M BEVs, 1,313,851 was sold by Tesla. That's 17.2%. Or simply put, every 6th fully electric car sold last year was a Tesla.
But Tesla's competition isn't the other BEV makers. Not yet. It's the traditional combustion engine. The 90% of the market.
So the metric that really matters is that Tesla sold every ~62nd light-duty vehicle sold on our planet in 2022.
And according to Tesla, here's its trailing-twelve-months graph of overall market share per region:
Although, since we're still here in the EV Universe, and almost all light-duty vehicles will be battery-electric soon, it still makes sense to look at Tesla compared to the rest of the BEV market too.
Going a step deeper, in 2022 Tesla delivered (per @Troyteslike data):
- 518,908 in the US (64-71% of all BEV sales in US)
- 439,770 in China (8.7% of all BEV sales in China)
- 234,194 in Europe (14.9% of all BEV sales in Europe)
- 120,979 in the rest of the world.
Here's how the 1.3M was divided among the S3XY models:
Note that Tesla didn't report Tesla Semi deliveries, although we know they delivered at least some to Pepsico (my still-relevant deep dive on the Semi here).
Being the leader of EV sales in the Universe and doing so with just four models comes with quite a few leader spots. In 2022, Model Y dominated these EV markets:
And the Model 3 took home (mostly) the #2 spot on most of the same markets:
Now, again, you could claim Tesla still has the first-mover advantage and the competition is juuust around the corner. Gas guzzlers are still way ahead, right?
~~Meme break~~
The thing is, that Model Y became the 4th best-selling passenger vehicle in the world in 2022 (link). Toyota Corolla, RAV4 and Ford F-series were the only ones ahead.
In Europe, Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car (of any fuel type) in September and November of 2022, and now took the #1 spot for the whole of Q1 this year! (link)
Tesla Model Y was also the best-selling vehicle in the US in Q1, if not counting pick-up trucks.
Will we see Model Y take home the best-selling car in the (knowable) Universe title this year? I think so.
Ok, but...
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
This is JB Straubel and Elon Musk, driving the "P1", the very first Tesla Roadster delivered (to Musk) on February 1st, 2008. You can read the story of the first cars arriving, their batteries being installed and see the pictures.
Without going too much into the history side of things (oh boy would that be a trip), here's a layout of how Tesla deliveries have grown in the past ten years on the three key regions:
In Q1 2023, it produced 440,808 and delivered 422,875 cars. Tesla aims to make around 1.8M vehicles in 2023 and keep a ~50% CAGR for long term.
Here are the current installed production capacities for Tesla factories:
The Cybertruck factory tooling is "on track; producing Alpha versions", per the Q1 report.
Additionally, Tesla is revamping the Giga Nevada, has announced Giga Mexico for its 'next-gen vehicle', and has more facilities across its portfolio, like the Giga New York for solar and superchargers and the Lathrop Megafactory for Tesla energy storage systems.
Musk has stated that the goal is to build 10-12 Gigafactories, capable of building 1.5M-2M units per year.
At the end of 2022, Tesla had 127,855 employees globally (+29k year-over-year), with half of the workforce in manufacturing roles. Tesla claims it received 3.6M job applications within the year.
In the next newsletters, we'll go deeper into Tesla's vehicle lineup (and what's coming), its software feature set, supercharging, safety and efficiency that in my eyes set it apart from others.
Here are a few more numbers for you to know where we are on the charging side:
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RECENT RESOURCES
Hours of material in case you want to jump into that 🐇🕳️
Impact Report 2022, released last week. Here's the dedicated web page, the full 224-page report pdf, or the highlights as a 61-page pdf. This is one of the best ways to get a high-level overview of anything from vehicle emissions to responsibly sourcing the raw materials for the batteries.
Q1 earnings call, from April 19th. Here's the Shareholder Deck 29-page pdf and the Q&A session (audio 1h7m).
Investor Day on March 1st. Here's everything you need to be in the know: 169-slide presentation , the 3h46min live stream video, the 28-min supercut video, or a short overview in text.
Master Plan Part 3 — Sustainable Energy for All of Earth, a 41-page pdf.
Shareholder Meeting 2023 will take place in Giga Texas on May 16th. Livestream will be here.
I will start dripping overview info from these in relevant sections for context in our next newsletters.
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Here's where I'll write about the most important, or curious, news from the past month, divided up by sections like:
THE COMPANY
Tesla price cuts have drawn most of the EV industry into a price war, especially in China (link). For example, between January and mid-April, Tesla had dropped Model Y prices up to -24% from it's high in January, Model 3 -14%, Model S -19% and Model X by -21%
Here's how Musk responds to those calling for advertising spend instead of price cuts (link):
"So many well off critics don’t understand that demand at scale is limited by affordability.There is plenty of demand for our products, but if the price is more money than people have, that demand is irrelevant."
I'd say the "price war" isn't what most people think. Most compare it with other EVs. I'd say the Tesla "price war" is actually about the Tesla vs ICE models.
Here's how the Model Y and Model 3 prices compare with the average new car bought in the US (the 0 line). We used to only talk in terms of the Total Cost of Ownership or TCO. Well, not anymore ( link )
Just now, after several price cuts this year across the globe this year, Tesla is starting to raise its prices up... although in a significantly smaller amount. Just this week, Tesla raised the M3 and MY prices in China by +2,000 yuan (+$289) (link), and raised prices in the US by +$250. I wonder if the bump is also there to say that "hey, don't wait for new discounts, you might lose 'em".
I would assume we'll see Tesla keep going with its 'dynamic' pricing for quite a while.
Capex: Tesla has again increased its forecast for capital expenditures, now towards the high end of $9B this year, up from a forecast of $5B a year ago. (link, SEC filing)
Tesla opened its first remote test drive hub, in Örebro, Sweden (link) and in Perth, UK (link).
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VEHICLES
👀 A refreshed Model 3, called "Project Highland" in-house, is now spotted without camo (link). I mean, it probably isn't fake based on the previous camo sightings.
New headlights, looks like no foglights (or integrated), no ultrasonic sensors, no logo on the hood. Plenty of other updates are expected (link). Highland should go into production this September. Tesla Model Y will reportedly also get a refresh with Project Jupiter, starting in Oct 2024 (link)
Tesla Cybertruck testing suspension at the Fremont factory (drone video). You can also see the "Giga Wiper" of the Cybertruck in action with this drone video of CT wind tunnel testing (drone video). Tesla has exactly 70 jobs open right now to work on the Cybertruck in Austin, Texas ( link ). Meanwhile, we got more Cybertruck spottings (photos)
By the latest info, the Cybertruck handover event will happen around the end of Q3. Here's an image from the Cybertruck pilot production line:
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TECH
Youtuber Ingineerix tears down Tesla's latest (4th-gen) motor and drive unit of a Giga Texas-built Model Y. (13min video)
How they do it: Tesla shows a notification when it detects significantly less tread depth on the rear tires vs the front. It does so by calculating a long-term average difference between front & rear axle wheel speeds & uses this to model a difference in tread depth between the axles. (link)
Tesla's Automatic Emergency Braking now works in reverse and at >100mph speeds, after the 2023.12 software update (along with plenty of other tweaks like being now able to customize the left scroll wheel functions etc.. (link).
The Trip Planner is now available in Tesla app (link), released with the update 4.10.69. (link)
I won't be discussing the viability of Tesla FSD and Autopilot efforts in these newsletters. I'm just not well-educated enough. So we'll stick to me reporting on either the overviews that Tesla itself provides, or the occasional larger updates and videos.
In Impact Report, Tesla says the FSD Beta users have 0.31 accidents per 1M miles, while Teslas with Autopilot engaged have 0.18 accidents per 1M miles, over the 1.53 industry avg.
Tesla has now accumulated 150 million miles driven with FSD Beta, increasing 50% within the first three months of this year.
Also, in almost breaking news, there could be some new developments in regulation in Europe which would enable the rollout of FSD Beta in Europe. (link)
Strange bug: A Tesla owner's app unlocked a stranger's Tesla next to his and he drove off by accident. (link)
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SALES
Tesla reportedly plans to start shipping its Giga Shanghai-made Model Ys to Canada, starting with 9k units in the current Q2. (link) Tesla also just released a cheaper MY variant in Canada, with RWD and should use LFP battery (which Shanghai uses), starting at 60,000 CAD ($44k) (link).
The lower entry price also makes the MY available for the 5,000 CAD rebate, with helping the CAD 69,900 long-range vehicle 'trim' now also eligible for the rebate. Incentives like $4k in BC or $7k n Quebec would be applied on top of all that. (link)
In Norway, Tesla Model Y outsells the next 5 competing models combined for January-April. (link)
Looks like we got a hint on the Tesla Semi real price: An official in Sacramento said each Semi costs about $250k, so grants are needed to encourage companies to go zero emissions. (link) A fleet of 21 Tesla Semis were unveiled at PepsiCo Sacramento bottling plant.
The Model S/X Round Steering Wheel is now the default option when buying a new vehicle. The Yoke steering wheel is now a $250 upgrade.
Bonus: The current Tesla Model S/X owners that have unlimited free Supercharging can get 6 years of unlimited Supercharging on a new Model S/X if they buy it and either trade-in the old vehicle or remove the free SC from it. (link)
Tesla also recently restarted its referral program in Europe with the Loot Box (link).
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PRODUCTION
Tesla Corpus Christi lithium refinery will break ground in May 2023.
Giga Mexico will, claims Musk, use least water per produced vehicle of any car factory in the world. (link) Monterrey governor also says they expect the factory to take around 12-15 months to build (link).
Giga South Korea? President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, met with Elon Musk during his US visit and 'asked' for Tesla investment in a gigafactory in South Korea. (link) Yeol said:
"Should Tesla decide to invest, we will provide active support in terms of location, workforce and taxes."
Musk reportedly responded that he expects to pay a visit to South Korea, saying the country remains an interesting and leading candidate to host a gigafactory.
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LEGAL STUFF
The Berlin District Court ruled that Tesla is allowed to continue to 'advertise' CO₂ savings of its cars on its websites in Germany, which was questioned by Federal Consumer Association (vzbv). The vzbv was, however, able to stop Tesla from advertising its Sentry Mode feature, because the surveillance of 3rd parties without their knowledge is prohibited in Germany. (link)
While a lot of media reports Musk losing a case for defamation by Randeep Hothi and paying out to settle the case for $10k... it apparently isn't true. (link)
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(SUPER)CHARGING
⚡ Tesla is currently opening a new Supercharger site globally every ~13 hours on average. (link)
⚡ Tesla walks away on $6.4M from the state of California for the four massive charger sites, because of 'unnecessarily cumbersome payment infrastructure requirements'. (link) Essentially, Tesla doesn't want to retrofit card payment terminals / screens.
⚡ Looks like the first "CyberVaults" in China are being already installed. (link) The launch video on the ~¥5,500 ($800) CyberVault AC charger here.
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📈 $TSLA
Here's the overview of the $TSLA stock price movement in the past month:
Tesla currently sits at a ~$502.33B market cap and is down 17.69% in the past month, up 48.30% YTD.
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WATCH/READ/CLICK TIPS
👀 Tesla engineer explains its Drag Strip Mode in a (video), along with what they call a 'Cheetah Stance'.
And VP of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy explains Tesla vehicle safety (video).
👀 Pete Gruber from Gruber Motor Company, the OG of Tesla Roadster servicing and rebuilds, says most of the first Roadster battery packs are still working after 15 years... but the ones replaced in 2016 are now indicating end-of-life symptoms. (10min video).
👀 Quite the barn find: Gruber Motors also now put up to sale the three original Tesla Roadsters with 0 miles on them, after they were found in a shipping container in China, abandoned by the original buyer in 2010. (link)
👀 The Giga Berlin paintshop has a slide (video).
👀 A look inside Tesla Semi in actual use by PepsiCo, said to have pulled out from a loading bay of a store (photos).
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OTHER
Elon Musk in an interview with comedian Bill Maher in his Real Time Tonight show (video).
I'll start writing on Musk's other businesses next month too, but here's a small tidbit if you're on Twitter: looks like Musk is earning at least $100k/month by just enabling his subscription (24.7k paid subscribers seen in his screenshot). The screenshot, perhaps unknowingly, also revealed his alternative account, @ErmnMusk.
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WRAP-UP
I hope you enjoyed this the first Teslaverse! You'll find me in your inbox again with the regular EV Universe sometime tomorrow'ish.
Do share this newsletter with your friends by either forwarding the email or sharing our online version.
Huge thanks to the team at Beast for making this newsletter happen. ✌️
— Jaan
