Report #92: New York State bans ICE 2035 — SIXT orders 100k from BYD in EU — BEV trucks > ICE trucks

Hey, Jaan here.

It is pretty crazy how much EV news can fit one week, every week.

Never gets boring for us!

Here's what's up in the EV industry this week:

• New York State follows California and bans ICE by 2035.
• Tesla reaches 10k Superchargers in EU and holds AI Day.
• Car haulers in trouble because EVs are heavier.
• Overview of EV incentives and tax benefits in all EU countries.

Words: 1,980. Time to read: 10 minutes. Feeling: like changing the world.

- Jaan

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Together with... me.

I was about to use this section here to tell you a story of the many ways how you can make a real change in the world, by helping me build the next level of EV Universe. You know, like becoming a Pro member (link), booking an ad (link), or sending the subscribe page to friends and colleagues (link).

Instead, why don't you come on a little trip with me?

We'll start with one of my favorite quotes of all time. The words of Margaret Mead:

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed individuals can change the world.
Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.

I've found that I have to keep reminding this to myself. It can be easy to get lost or feel discouraged when so much of the world clings to the old ways. As soon as I step out of our little EV industry bubble, I realize most of the world has no idea how fast we're moving. Ever get that feeling?

If at any point throughout the EV revolution you feel insignificant or small, know that I'm here. We're here. And we are on the same mission. Just reach out.

Although there is quite a number of us EV owners, enthusiasts, and professionals already working towards a cleaner future, we still represent a minority in the fossil-fueled world.

But our collective move towards sustainable transport is getting harder and harder for others to ignore. More will join our fight.

You, my friend, are on the right side of the rEVolution.

WE are the small [growing] group of thoughtful, committed individuals that can change the world.

Now that I got that weirdly semi-emotional thing off my chest, let's get down to business.

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New York State bans ICE by 2035

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Exactly as ordered. the New York State follows California and issues that all passenger cars, pickup trucks, SUVs and light commercial vehicles sold in the state must be zero emissions by 2035. (link)

The intermediary goals are the same as in CA, with 35% zero emission by 2026 and 68% by 2030. No info yet, if they'll leave a little something for PHEVs like California did. The governor, Kathy Hochul, commented on the timing:

"We had to wait for California to take a step because there’s some federal requirements that California had to go first — that’s the only time we’re letting them go first."

I'll quote myself from August here when California announced their ICE ban:

"At least 15 states have adopted California’s vehicle standards on previous clean-car rules, so states like New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont are likely to come along (link)".

NY also announced a $10M investment into the program which gives New Yorkers up to a $2k rebate for EVs. The program has already seen almost 80k rebates and spent more than $92M so far. The charging infra should be helped along nicely as The EVolve NY fast charging network reached 100 chargers installed and NY State will be getting a $175M piece of the NEVI pie.

The state of New York State

Per the NY State's interactive EV Registration Map (link) with September data, there are:

• 65,711 battery-electric vehicles on its roads,
• 48,853 PHEVs,
• Tesla Model 3 is dominating with 19.5k units, followed by Model Y with 15.7k, then Prius with 12.3k,
• 61.24 BEVs per each DC charger port,
• 7.93 BEVs per level 2 port.

The 2035 ICE ban is a far greater task for New York State than it will be for California.

While California already stood at a 15.39% BEV market share in the first half of this year, in New York state, the registrations for BEVs at the same time counted only a 3.33% market share (pdf, page 6). You can see how different the starting points for the two states are. I hope they'll both end up in the same spot by 2035.

On a better note, New York City has been well ahead of its electrification plans, reaching its 2025 goal of 4,000 city-owned electric vehicles already in September this year. This includes electric police cars (like the 200+ NYPD Mach-Es and Model 3's), garbage trucks, school buses, administration vehicles (like the Bolts seen at the event), and even electric street sweepers from Ideanomics. Here's an NYPD Mach-E:

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Uncanny.

"I'd expect SIXT to come out with big-time orders from EV makers, similar to Hertz, rather soon as the Management Board just approved a 'sustainability program'" ...

This is what I wrote in our Pro Report exactly two weeks ago.

Three days ago, SIXT announced it signed a long-term agreement with BYD to order up to 100,000 of its EVs and add them to the SIXT rental fleet. (link) The first order of several thousand cars start deliveries in Q4 this year and start driving on the streets of Germany, France, the Netherlands and the UK.

This will give the BYD European expansion we wrote about last week a proper early nudge. Well played.

You're currently missing out on this kind of market intelligence because you haven't joined the Pro yet. No biggie if that's not for you. If you do want to get the early scoops and connect the dots that others miss, jump in here (link).

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🌌 Around The 'Verse

The most clicked link last week: Volkswagen calls in the owners of 10,130 ID.3 and ID.4 worldwide as a 'service measure' because of a battery cell defect. (link) I'm closely watching this one, hoping the real problem isn't larger.

A bug in Tesla Supercharging page let us see all the upcoming Supercharger location addresses that would otherwise be hidden from the public. (link) I spent a bit of time today browsing through these, although it seems those addresses have now been removed again.

If you've got any specific locations you'd want to get info on in the US or Canada (or Finland) that shows 'coming soon' without an address, drop me an email. I might or might not have saved all of the info before they took it down 🤫.

Car haulers are urging the US lawmakers and Biden administration to increase truck weight limits on US highways so they could transport the (more heavy) EVs. The rail industry (their bread) and safety advocates (their care) oppose it.

Georgia state court rejected the $1.5B incentive plan for Rivian $5B, 400k vehicles/year plant. State officials say they are 'disappointed'. (link) The court rejected the agreement on grounds that "the proposal did not appear feasible and failed to establish that it would promote the welfare of local communities." As far as I could gather, there might be another location in Georgia the parties will search for.

The State of Vermont introduced the "Replace Your Ride" program which gives owners $3,000 if they surrender their 10+ years old car. This is one of the several incentives from the state, including an incentive of up to $4,000 for EVs. (link)

VW Group CFO Arno Antlitz said the group is well positioned to finance its EV strategy after the Porsche IPO. He also hinted at a potential IPO of PowerCo: „The next project is strategic partnerships or a potential IPO of the battery unit – I can’t say more for now.“

Of course, VW Group did also say it'll pay 49% of the IPO proceeds to the shareholders as a special dividend (link).

Tesla held its AI Day, which included a showcase of its progress with the robot Optimus. Here's the full event (3:23:00), most of which goes way over my head. This supercut might save you some time: (23:23).

Tesla reached 10,000 Superchargers in Europe, spread over 30 countries. 20% of it has been added within this year.

The top 10 EV battery makers of this year, via Visual capitalist (link) (tweet):

I enjoy their data visualization techniques

PwC analysis expects battery electric trucks to outperform conventional ICE trucks and have a 26-34% cost advantage by 2030 worldwide. (link) They predict 70% of trucks sold in EU, North America and Greater China be powered by batteries or fuel cells by 2035. and 25-35% in 2030.

Here's a good story on why sometimes for BEV trucks, range doesn't matter (link).

The Korean government plans to boost domestic automakers' EV production to 3.3M units by 2030, increasing their global market share to 12%. (link)

Expect more moves like this: In Australia, financing your EV through pepper money gets you 2MWh of complimentary charging over 12 months in the Evie networks chargers. (link) What a great way to get EV owners to go for your deal.

There are 8 days left for the Kleanbus crowdfunding campaign on crowdcube. It has  reached 141% of its target with £353,703 raised so far, on a £10.46M valuation. (link) The company aims to convert diesel buses to battery-electric with its pre-fabricated modular solution. PS! Not investment advice.

This is what the Redwood Materials' Battery Materials Campus 1 looks like, under construction in Northern Nevada. It will start producing by the end of the year, supplying Giga Nevada (link):

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Chart of the week

Evolution of average range of EVs and PHEVs, 2010-2021, in kilometers. Data by IEA (link).

(share on Twitter here)

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Stuff I'm...

...watching

👀 Aptera started producing solar cells for the solar EV. They are using Maxeon Solar cells. Some good details here (link):

👀 Mate Rimac walking you through the Nevera production line (01:04).

👀 Hurricane Ian vs Tesla Plaid :( (link)

👀 Rivian's Solar Charging Yard in Normal, Illinois is now live and can charge 72 vehicles at once. Lots of their delivery vans and pickups trucks for extra eye candy: (video)

👀 I might be biased but the Estonian EV smart charging app that charges your EV in the cheapest hours, found a great way for a little guerilla marketing. They introduced #UrsulaMode for off-peak charging, after Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, said energy demand must be reduced by 10% across EU during peak hours this winter:

...reading

📚 Resource: The EV tax benefits and purchase incentives of the 27 member states of the European Union, by ACEA. (link)

📚 The big battery bonus of the IRA that we don't talk about (link). To summarize, credits for eligible production are:

• 10% of the cost of battery electrode active materials
• $35/kWh of battery cell capacity
• $10/kWh of battery module capacity
• 10% of the cost of producing a battery mineral.

📚 John Voelcker's deep dive if solar cars make sense after driving the Lightyear 0 (link). PS - Valmet Automotive completed the first pre-production LY 0 (link)

📚 This study digs deeper into what and how Norway has done to be 5-10 years ahead of other countries in terms of EV adoption. (link) Thanks, Paul, for sending me this one.

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Quote of the Week

I find this is something I've tried to put into words for a while now. Found on the Future of Transport newsletter (link):

In EVs, charging defines the 'product' experience much more than gasoline for ICE ever did.

— Reilly Brennan.

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Cheers and see you next week

Jaan

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