Report #91: Porsche IPO — INDI EV goes SPAC — VW battery recalls
Hey, Jaan here.
Here's what's up in the EV industry this week:
- EVs from China might start coming to Europe by rail.
- Deep Dive into the newest SPAC: INDI EV.
- Porsche's IPO, BYD's European launch.
- 7 TWh of Gigafactory pipeline and VW battery recalls.
Words: 2,868. Time to read: 13 minutes. Feeling: indie.
PS! I'll be using the words "Together with ___" for a section where I'm introducing a sponsored message going forward. Even if it is very relevant to us (that's what I aim for), I want you to always be able to distinguish which of the words aren't mine. You can also book your very own message, two spots left in October.
- Jaan
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Together with DIMO
With DIMO you can log your battery metrics, trips, and charging sessions so that you build up a picture of the health of your EV. Many EVs are compatible with just software and you can join thousands of people who are adopting DIMO early — download DIMO today.
- Tesla: Connect your Tesla in minutes.
- Other Vehicle Apps: If you use an app like VolvoCars, Toyota, FordPass, or others, you might be able to connect your car. Check eligibility here.
- Hardware: DIMO also makes hardware available to cars that don't have a software option. Add your car to the mobile app to join the waitlist.
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Jaan's (non-promoted) take on the above: I enjoy analytics and love ecosystems, so I'm about to test out the hardware on a few of our fleet cars soon. Stay tuned for some content on that, and if you've connected yours, let me know your thoughts.
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EVs from China to Europe... by rail?
I haven't seen other-than-rail news outlets cover this yet so be vary, but here's what I dropped as an 'exclusive' with the Pro Report last week and now to you.
China Railway said this week that EVs can be shipped to Europe by rail from the 1st of October, opening a new cargo category for China-Europe rail freight. (link) This comes, apparently, after two years of 'intensive lobbying' from the industry, including carmakers like Geely. The "finished" EVs are allowed, whereas lithium battery shipments continue to be not.
The shipping by rail should mean a 6,000-mile journey of anything between 13...20 days from what I've gathered. By ship is said to take from 20...28 days, which is also confirmed by the time it takes a Tesla ship to travel from Shanghai to Slovenia. (link) If you have better info on the durations on each, share at will.
Of course, this doesn't immediately mean we'll see EVs flowing in considering there's a... terrorist nation called Russia somewhere in between.
A boost for EVs
I consider it another tailwind for the Chinese EV makers that are just about to flood the European market anyway — BYD, XPeng, NIO, and Polestar among others. It's likely that Tesla will also benefit from this alternative logistics channel until Giga Berlin has ramped up its production enough to supply the market itself.
At any rate, this will surely expand our little EV Universe, even if it just eases operations.
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INDI EV goes SPAC
Here's another tale of an EV startup that has big dreams. I plan for the EV Universe to be around long enough to tell you if they made it or not.
INDI EV announced this week it entered into a definitive merger agreement with a SPAC called Malacca Straits Acquisition Company ($MLAC) to go public on NASDAQ at a $600M valuation (link). While the news would have likely made the stock explode upwards last year, we saw barely any movement here.
The deal is expected to close in Q1 of 2023 and the company should start trading on Nasdaq under the ticker "INEV".
Our Pro members have already met the Indi One back in a report from March, but I'll open a bit of the background today here too.
The Indie company
The name INDI EV, at least this far, seems to be true to what I'd say they are... an indie automaker in LA. They say that their small team is a feature compared to the inflexibilities of big OEMs, but then again... that's what I would say if I weren't one of the big guys yet too.
The roots aren't very well documented, but from the looks of it, the founder Shi Hai manifested its previous gaming ventures in China into an electric vehicle in the US. Consider: Shi Hai also has three lawsuits against him and his previous Chinese mobile game ventures. (link)
The best way to get the feel of how the team sees what they do is to watch their 3x2 minute mini docuseries here (videos). And now, it looks like we've also got our "EV Spotlight" section covered this week:
The Indi One
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Here are the specs of the Indi One, the standard version of which starts at $43k:
- Range: 230mi at 75kWh pack
- 0-60mph: 6.7sec and top speed 120mph (193km/h)
- Powertrain: Single Motor RWD
- Charges at 100kW DC
- Dimensions: L/W/H - 189" | 78" | 67" (looks like a Model Y range)
- Can be reserved today for $100 down in US&CA (here)
The premium trim goes for $69k and, in addition to pumping up the numbers above to 300mi / 4.25s / AWD / 150kW DC, it comes with the Vehicle Integrated Computer, which should allow for high-end gaming. There's literally a computer there if you open the hood.
Note, that although Indi called this a 'supercomputer' at first, but per this short video it's merely a custom Windows PC with a 6core i7 processor, 16GB RAM, and an Nvidia RTX 2080 TI graphics card. Hardly a supercomputer?
The VIC system can create the screens into a working computer, be used to livestream straight to Twitch using the vehicle's cameras, or make for a rather powerful gaming engine. And these features are mainly what the marketing side of the company seems to be focused at so far.
Deliveries? The estimated delivery date is claimed to be in Q2 2023 for reserving now on the website. So far, there is at least one drivable prototype that some 'LA influencers, local government and green energy leaders' were given test rides in this August. (link) The videos I dug up made by the influencers mentioned in the press release (1) (2) were... not much.
As everything these days is measured by likes and clicks, I also worry a bit about the 'lack of' those in the company's social channels. Seems they haven't been able to make the communities really buzzing yet. How many reservations so far? *shrugs*
My two Watts:
The two years I've been writing the EV Universe so far now makes an alarm go off in my head for this delivery date estimation. I would love to be surprised to see them actually delivering these in six-to-nine months, but I wouldn't count on it unless they plan on having the car built somewhere in China and importing/assembling it in the US. Which is what actually might be the plan here.
For what it's worth, I did enjoy what the lead designer of the car, Andre Hudson, said in an interview at the NY Auto Show (video):
"We believe that the future of EV technology is going to be measured more in processing power than horsepower".
If you want to dig deeper into the design mind of Andre Hudson, Living Electric did a good interview with him a few months back here (video).
Fun fact, and maybe not so great for Indi EV: Hudson moved on to be the VP of Design at Mullen Automotive just two months ago (link).
Everything ever made starts out as a weird project somewhere, so I hope that this one proves to have no fraud involved (sometimes sadly the case) and surprises us with vehicles on the road soon.
In case you want to share *this* article with your mom or call me out for being completely wrong, I put it up separately for sharing here: (link).
DISCLAIMER: DO NOT take anything I write as any kind of financial advice. Do your own research. I do not own or have a plan to own shares in this or most EV companies, as I direct my funds on building out the EV Universe.
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🌌 Around The 'Verse
The most clicked link last week was about Mr. Quattlebaum, whose Model 3 in the US was assigned to the Tesla app of someone random in Europe, resulting in all kinds of weird stuff happening (link).
Atlis goes public: Atlis Motor Vehicles listed on the NASDAQ (no IPO, nor SPAC) on Tuesday at $27.50/share (link), under the ticker $AMV. I'm doing a bit of a deeper dive in today's Pro Report, including how the earliest crowd investors might have made almost a cool $1M from investing only $568 into this four years ago.
I also added both $MLAC and $AMV to the stock tracker's full version. Go Pro here to get access to the deep dive and full tracker.
Porsche completes its IPO so we can finally stop talking about it every week. Kidding, but also... not.
Yesterday, trading of Porsche started at €82.50/share ($80.47) under the ticker P911 on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. (link) This made it the third-largest IPO ever in Europe, with a market cap of €78B ($76.08B).
It also means Volkswagen Group raised €9.39B (link), almost half of which will be distributed to shareholders following a general meeting in December, and the other half to help build VW EVs. If I calculate it right from this statement, that's a solid nearly 10€/share dividend?
In 2030, Porsche’s ambition is for over 80% of new vehicles delivered to be BEVs.
BYD has announced its plans and prices on its European market launch, starting with three models in Germany, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. France and UK will be added by the end of the year. (link) We've seen BYD's moves in choosing sales and aftersales partners across Europe, with the latest being Inchcape for Belgium and Luxembourg (link).
These base prices should be available in Germany:
While the Han and Tang are also available as hybrids in China (and selling well), Europe will only get the battery-electric versions. The official presentation with final details will take place at the Paris Motor Show in October. Here's the European product premiere (39:10), complete with an inspirational intro:
I can't wait for a year or two to pass so we could look back on the impact BYD and other Chinese makers have had on the European EV market. Or you know, if they failed miserably. I doubt the latter, but stay tuned.
Arrival announced today it produced its first production verification van in the Microfactory and delivered it to UPS for trials. (link)
Lordstown announced yesterday that it has started production of its Endurance pickup truck in the now-Foxconn-owned plant in Ohio. Two have rolled off the line with the third 'expected to be completed shortly' (link). The company expects to deliver 50 units in 2022. And this time with the help of Foxconn, the promise seems... doable.
General Motors closed reservations for the GMC Hummer EV and (coming soon) Hummer SUV, as has over 90k reservation which stretches deliveries 'to at least 2024'. (link)
Hertz CEO says the demand for Tesla rental is "very, very solid" in an interview (video) and seems to be now looking at how to charge 'em all. Hertz signed an MoU with bp pulse to build a network of fast-charging hubs with 'thousands of chargers' across the US. (link)
Hertz will also use BP Pulse’s fleet software to schedule charges for optimizing costs. 'Some' of these hubs will be made available to the general public. Connection: BP pulse has already installed chargers at 25 of Hertz's airport locations.
The Gigafactory ten-year pipeline now exceeds 7 TWh by 2031, per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. (link) Although nearly 120 companies are involved in these battery factories, only 9 companies control half of it.
This is what the top 10 of the global battery makers are expected to look like in 2031, compared to last year's standing:
Here's a brief answer to us on what they consider for capacities (link).
Amazon Alexa might be your new test-drive buddy when you're trying out the VW ID.4 (link) You can sign up for one if you're in the US (here).
The US government has now approved all the NEVI plans for all 50 states and the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico to build electric vehicle charging infrastructure. (link)
Totaling $1.5B, it will fund the chargers across the ~75k highway miles across the States. You can now see all state deployment plans in the same link I shared a few weeks back: (link).
Tesla partners with charging reliability platform ChargerHelp! to survey the status of various chargers in its Destination Charger Network of over 35k locations. The partnership starts in California. (link)
Remote battery termination: In Renault’s terms and conditions, there is a part that says that the recharging of the batteries can be blocked in the event of an extraordinary termination of the contract. I can assume VinFast and others playing on the battery rental scheme might have the same clause.
The German Federal Supreme Court is now hearing a case to decide how much power manufacturers have over vehicle batteries in a lease, announcing their ruling on 26th of October (link) via Electrive.
China has now officially announced the NEVs (= BEVs, FCEVs and PHEVs) will be exempt from purchase taxes until the end of 2023. (link) It's been extended since 2014 and from January to July this year, China has exempted ~$5.7B worth of NEV taxes.
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The setbacks
VW battery defect: VW is said to recall 10,130 units of the ID.3 and ID.4 worldwide, because "battery cells could show an increased self-discharge due to a manufacturing defect", as the company confirmed to nextmove.de. (link)
I'm watching this space closely. VW Group sold 395,451 BEVs last year and if this one turns out to be a wider defect...
Nikola recalls all 93 Nikola Tre trucks built to date in the US because the improper installation of the seat belt shoulder anchors could lessen protection in a crash. (link)
Canoo should get their marketing team and engineering team to work together more. Their Twitter account shoots out a video with Two Bit Da Vinci driving the delivery van (link) and tweets: "Around 80 kWh battery pack, they have 2,170 cylindrical cells", when in fact they should be talking of the cells with 2170 dimensions. An honest mistake perhaps, but hey, an EV-only startup...
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I've got a buzzing Pro Report coming out today. Get the exclusive takes and detailed peeks behind the EV industry curtains by joining us:
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Chart of the week
A big picture view of Tesla's market share in BEVs across different markets per quarter (link) by @Troyteslike:
Stuff I'm...
...watching
👀 Tesla AI Day will start in about 7 hours, here's the livestream: (video). Here's a short teaser Tesla put up today of Optimus moving its hands (link).
👀 The whole 12 hours of live footage of the E-Cannonball 2022 in Hamburg which took place over the last weekend (in German but translate works rather well).
The incoming Audi e-tron prototype was also participating, although under camo (link)
👀 A great World EV Day panel chat on the US & UK governments' emobility directions, with Michael Berube from US DoE, Ian Plummer from Auto Trader UK, Richard Bruce from UK DfT, and Ted Cannis, the CEO of Ford Pro (36:16):
👀 CTO of Sono Motors testing out the Vehicle-2-Device outlet in front of the Sion solar car (video).
...reading
📚 A Time magazine piece on the backstory of Robin Zeng and CATL: "China's EV Battery King" by Henry Sanderson, the author of Volt Rush and Executive Editor of BMI (link).
📚 A great longer read overview of the macro on mining critical minerals for batteries, by Rick Mills (link)
📚 A look into India's charging scene and the 14 charging apps. (link) Bonus - it comes with spreadsheets!
"Just too many charging apps & too much fragmentation" is the story of our life whole Universe, isn't it?
📚 ACEA lists details of 34 zero-emission trucks entering or about to enter the European market (pdf). A good overview.
...listening to
🎙️ The Confessions of a Petroholic by Fastned launched the first podcast episode called "Dirty Diana" (20:14). Looks like they didn't launch it as fast as I teased two weeks back... sorry! This one has special guest appearances by Robert Llewellyn (Fully Charged) and Robin Schmid (Robin TV).
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That's it! You made it to the end. I appreciate you.
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