Crystal ball: EV Universe members predict for EVs in 2023

Hey, Jaan here.

As promised, here's a standalone issue. This is about something I value the most.

The community we've built.

Here are each of your 65 predictions submitted, with paraphrasing and compiling for clarity by me. Among you are industry professionals and EV owners, investors and founders, enthusiasts and skeptics.

This truly is one of the more exciting parts of building the EV Universe for me, so I am thankful to everyone who took the time to write something up for us.

OK, enough of my fluff.

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EV CRYSTAL BALL 2023

I want to start with the one that made me laugh:

"My crystal ball is as unclear as the muddy flood water surrounding me here in California." — anonymous

EV GROWTH

I'll start with this prediction, as it captures in one place what several of you saw coming in 2023:

EV Universe will have 5'000 subscribers. EV demand will continue to outpace production, except for Tesla. Power costs and inflation will lead to higher EV prices and more subscription models. Global EV market will continue to grow. More Chinese EVs outside of China. More EV trucks. More fast charging, more LF technologies.— CEO of Capital Rewards Partners, owns Taycan.

Jaan: I'm flattered. Double that subscriber count but still... flattered. :)

The EV industry will continue to grow and the transition will speed up, more models will become available and the public will become more comfortable with EVs.

This was predicted, in some form or another by The EV guy, Arnis (LEAF & iMiEV owner), @elonfantommy, Tom Waters (Volt owner), anonymous, Dani, an anonymous Tesla M3 and LEAF owner, Anon working in Commercial EV Batteries, Tiff (drives 2017 LEAF), Anon Model Y owner in Canada, LucyLuc, Jrod, and Almir.

Lynn has a personal reason to keep an eye on the models:

"The incentives this year will boost sales of both new and used. We need to replace our work van and will be keeping a close eye on larger size EV models." — Lynn, RTC productions

And then, there were some more specific ideas on growth:

EV will hit 15% of new vehicle sales in the US. — Trent
The growth of electric cars will be more than double of 2022. — Charles Sanchez (zeroemisionrd)
Doubling the number of EVs on the road to 20 million globally. More solar cars on the roads (like Sion), V2G and electric trucks. — David Waterworth, writer for CleanTechnica and owns a Tesla M3.
EV sales double again to around 11% of [US] new car sales. — @joshdance
A Tesla Model 3 owner predicts 20% of car companies will go bankrupt or merge, most of them in China.
‍Denis also sees some market consolidation ahead.
The number of EVs sold in Europe will make records... and Estonia will have its own new small electric car rolling on the street. — anonymous

I found these specific point of views interesting too:

EVs will show up even more in more 3rd world countries. — Raj

It is the year of the used EV — Liz from Recurrent

Some stubborn EV haters will come to realize some of the (many) benefits EVs offer. — Scott Harleman, drives 2023 Chevy Bolt

Paul from PTOLEMUS added that EVs will see much more VC investment in 2023. He also sees VinFast making a name for itself in the industry.

China dominating the EV sales and Chinese EV makers expanding strong outside of China is predicted by f205v, @elonfantommy, Michael V (owns Renault Twizy), Denis Tossan, Dani, and Capital Rewards. MSC goes as far saying that "this will lead to panic among traditional manufacturers and political pressure. Think accusations of price dumping and govt subsidies."

Denis sees the EV takeup in the US accelerating at the expense of ICE vehicles thanks to IRA, but most brands will struggle to put out competitive EVs at capacity to meet the demand for couple more years. BYD and Tesla will benefit most due to the capacity and manufacturing prowess.

Road Tax for EVs will be widely discussed in many countries to compensate for lost taxes on petrol. — f205v and an anon Chevy Bolt EUV owner had similar thoughts here.

Denis, Capital Rewards and DSRPT both mention that EV trucking will see a huge rise in interest.

We had three great takes on mainstream media and EVs:

EVs will be the new darling of mainstream media in 2023, akin to climate change becoming 'everywhere'. We'll see results of this exposure in 2024. — LEAF 2.zero owner

A counterprediction for that from Dave:

EVs will continue to grow, but not as quickly as governments want - because of costs, charging availability and public skepticism - derived from poor mass media support. — Dave Joy (Jacobs)

Or does either even matter?

There will still be lots of FUD but it will start to be less impactful as the general public starts to become more interested and educated. — Model Y owner from Canada

CHARGING

EV adoption grows, but at the expense of more exposure to the not-quite-ready public DCFC infrastructure (CCS). ⁠— gadgeTT, a Polestar 2 driver

Tom Waters, a Chevy Volt driver and Michael Peters from Sway Mobility (with a fleet of Bolts and a LEAF) also predict that a lack of reliable charging infrastructure will hold adoption back.

Mjb adds that the government rebates almost guarantees some companies just will put up the chargers for the funds. Almir who owns a Tesla MY and Volvo C40 adds that the focus will switch to electrifying the infrastructure based on the gov incentives. And Bret thinks the CCS network might become even more unreliable with the new EV flood.

Gas stations focused on fossil fuels are going out of business due to the changing consumer behaviors. ⁠— Jason Luna

Public market EV charging networks will be taken private.
— Reilly Brennan, Trucks

Nikita (Product at Faction, Advisor at Live Charge) predicts that the EU will adopt a common swappable battery standard. He also says that the public charge stations will become a hot spot for trendy EV folks to hang out.

An anonymous member says there will be more public pressure for DC chargers [in Canada]. Additional service opportunities arise like vacuums and garbage cans near chargers.

Dan and DSRPT predict that more bi-directional chargers will be installed at home, and EVs will start being used as a load balancer. Matt predicts that Kia will launch Vehicle-to-Home capabilities. I also enjoyed this comment:

Every sensible transportation company is trying to get the biggest claim on power from the electrical company/network. And thus creating a shortage in capacity requests in the network
— DSRPT, innovation company & Tesla driver

TESLA

We received enough predictions on the current leader of the EV industry to have it's own headline. Let's see what y'all think:

Tesla returns to previous high valuations as it becomes clear it's the only car company that keeps growing its market share at a breakneck pace, whilst also remaining profitable, right in the middle of a recession.
— elbow da shizzle

On Tesla market share:

Tesla will continue to dominate. — Model Y owner in Canada, CyberTruck preorder holder
Tesla market share will peak. — Almir
Tesla sales will drop below 50% of the EV market in the US. — Hyundai Ioniq 5 owner
The combination of non-Tesla sales will overtake Tesla in the U.S. — Mouse, drives VW ID.4 2022
Tesla will continue to crush it, production and market share-wise. — Nikita (Faction/LC)
GM will increase EV market share with the Bolt EUV, etc. and Tesla will reduce. — Chevy Bolt EUV owner

On Tesla share price:

We will see TSLA drop significantly below $100. — Siggi (owns ID.3)
Elon Musk and Tesla will create a bad year for the shareholders. — anon
Tesla loses meaningful market share to legacy brands as they bring out better and better EVs leading to valuation of Tesla dropping to match other automotive companies. — anonymous (works @ Beast)

Now, I want to point out that the next prediction from "LucyLuc" came in before the Tesla cut its prices up to 20% globally overnight:

Tesla will reduce the price of 3&Y in Europe.

LucyLuc also said that Rivian will come to Europe, VW will scale up the production and reduce waiting times, and EVs will be more popular than expected in 2022.

"World loses mind over Cybertruck. Michael Jackson+Prince+Princess Diana level hysteria & fervor in every nook & cranny of Earth.

This will usher in the rise of ALL EVs & significantly deplatform ICE." — Springblade ftw, Aeroseaspace LLC

f205v and Jim Stack also say Cybertruck will start deliveries and, as f205v put it, "will have a HUGE impact on public perception of EVs in the USA."Jim also says the 2-seat super efficient Aptera will start deliveries too.

Meanwhile, the anon (working at Beast) says Cybertruck deliveries will be delayed to 2024, and the FSD will be delayed too. Anon says that

"Tesla's will lose their status as the non depreciating cars they have been, as waitlists for new ones get shorter and shorter crashing used prices. Musk will get ousted from the seat of CEO for an automotive industry veteran. New Teslas will be fitted with lidar. Still great cars."

Nikita agrees that Tesla proper Full Self Driving will not come in 2023.

BATTERIES

We'll see announcements (but not yet releases) of plans to standardize EV pack design for improved interchangeability and future proofing of early platforms, i.e. a promise that early generations will be supported by some always in stock battery pack design for a long time.
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With new EU guidelines for user replacements, as well as new unproven players such as VinFast appearing to be a huge standalone risk, I think developments in this area are ripe for seizing consumer confidence.

— anonymous Consumer Electronics Battery Test Engineer

Almir says we'll start seeing more responsible battery manufacturing options, and DSRPT says more old EV batteries will find their way into energy storage solutions. @elonfantommy hopes to see the supply chain issues decrease, along with recycling gaining momentum before the year's end.

Batteries will continue to get better. Solid state will become available. Sodium will also come out. This will make V2G will be the next big thing. — Jim Stack

Here's an interesting take on silicon and nickel based chemistries from Mike:

You will see silicon start to make noise as it becomes more visible as a way to reduce battery cost while increasing range two major issues that will push adoption. I also believe that writing off nickel in view of LFP chemistry will prove to be a bad judgement on investors part? Lower cost and increased range of maybe 10x will only increase nickel demand.
— Mike C

A local prediction for India from Megha:

Battery swapping will receive major policy pushes in India, along with battery size restrictions (via new official standards) to enable this. — Megha, from Global Green Growth institute (GGGI)

And Daniel is talking of efficiency:

It will turn out, that the production of a car with ICE needs more energy (kWh) than the production of a comparable BEV. This is because of advanced energy-recuperation during the battery production. Also mass production of batteries makes use of energy more efficiently. — Daniel

SKEPTICAL / LIMITED GROWTH

Although I might sound like a perpetual cheerleader every week, I recognize that skepticism is healthy. Not everyone predicts growth to continue at the same speed as last year:

Slowing EV sales growth everywhere (China, EU, US) — Michael Coates from Clean Fleet Report

Due to macro conditions, EV sales growth slows from ~50% in 2022 to 30% in 2023, first half of the year will be slow. — Stewart Fletcher

EV sales in the US will be lower than in 2022. — Paul from PTOLEMUS

Another anonymous reply sums it all up like this:

It will be very tumultuous.

A local look at New Zealand, which I'm sure can be attributed to elsewhere too:

In New Zealand, the increase in general cost of living and the country facing recession, will mean less EV sales than last year. — LEAF owner in NZ

Will EVs be expensive?

There will be talk of affordable (<€30k) models coming to market, but most will still be extremely high-end expensive offerings as usual. — @elonfantommy

Nikita also predicts we'll see an affordable EV:

We will see the emergence and popularization of an electric "people's" car. An affordable EV, with 20-25k sticker prices and 200-250 km (125-155mi) range. — Nikita

A retired anon on their second LEAF also says the long-distance EVs will be too expensive, although it will become normal to buy/lease an EV.

Brian thinks prices are going up instead:

"I don't see anything earth-shattering happening. I see prices going up substantially. I do see that the larger automobile companies, as they begin to roll out major products, will discover that their estimates of how things will work will need adjustment. I think Ford is learning this with their pickup truck right now." — Brian Lloyd, Electrical Engineer who owns a Tesla Model 3 and has CyberTruck on order

Almir says our energy mix isn't great yet:

Unfortunately, I see fossil fuels continue to dominate energy supply as a quick fix for current energy supply issues which will be a setback in many ways as it regards to climate and sustainability but I don't see their stronghold lasting beyond 2023. — Almir (Tesla MY and Volvo C40)

Someone that goes by "I Should of Known" and works in Agricultural Consulting had an interesting take:

"The EV movement has been and is currently based on 'feel good economics' where folks buy to feel as though they are contributing to a cleaner environment."

He/she goes on sayin real economics don't support the environmental or financial aspects of this industry, and cites skyrocketing costs for batteries, chargers, grid problems and short driving range particularly on cold weather leaving owners unhappy. "What if in a year or two down the road, fusion or hydrogen becomes the answer?"

I'll give my two Watts on this one: I agree - it feels good to drive my EV. Although, the contribution to a cleaner environment is only one part of the reason why. The validity of this and the rest we can surely confirm every week on the newsletters. :)

OTHER EV CATEGORIES

Daniel touches the topic of hydrogen, predicting the first major accident on a hydrogen fueling station will occur. And the production of Toyota Mirai will be phased out.

I quite liked this prediction from Matt:

"EV restomod is featured on some mainstream media and a major OEM or Tier 1 supplier announces a complete conversion crate system (not just the motor, a la Ford in 2021)" — Matt S, owns a Tesla MY and a 77 Fiat Spider converted to EV.

Matt. We need pictures of that Spider by the way.

The topic I don't cover on my newsletters but should start at some point:

Micro mobility will keep eating the world. More OEMs will be flocking into the category, producing e-bikes, e-scooters and such. — Nikita

Dani predicts about something a bunch of us are waiting to hit the market:

Maybe someone announces a caravan with added battery to supplement the pulling EV's battery. — Dani

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That's it. This was fun for me. I hope it was the same for you. :)

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Jaan

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